Mac Chip Predictions

M1 Cycle

Sep. 2020 — A14 (base core design for M1) in iPhones 12
Nov. 2020 — M1 in MacBook Air, Mac Mini, MacBook Pro
Apr. 2021 — M1 in 24" iMac
Oct. 2021 — M1 Pro/Max in MacBook Pro
Mar. 2022 — M1 Max/Ultra in Mac Studio
Jun. 2022 — M1 Max/Ultra/2x Ultra in Mac Pro, G1 graphics card (announced)
“late” 2022 — Mac Pro ships

M2 Cycle

Sep. 2022 — A16 (base core design for M2) in iPhones 14
“late” 2022 — M2 in MacBook Air, Mac Mini
“early” 2023 — M2 in 24" iMac
“late” 2023 — M2 Pro/Max in MacBook Pro
“early” 2024 — M2 Max/Ultra in Mac Studio
“late” 2024 — M2 Max/Ultra/2x Ultra in Mac Pro, G2 graphics card

Many people covering Apple seem to forget (at least in the moment, on their podcasts), but Apple uses early/mid/late for their Mac releases. April 30 doesn’t feel like “early” 2022, but it still qualifies. Jan–Apr, May–Aug, Sep–Dec.

Apple also sometimes uses seasons, and those go by solstices and equinoxes. Again, June 19 doesn’t necessarily feel like “spring” anymore in most places, and yet it qualifies. December 20 doesn’t feel like “fall,” and yet…

Note: I’ll get to my Mac Pro predictions at the end of this, but suffice to say that I think we will have a predictable cycle going forward. We already know exactly when the iPhone will come out. Why can’t we do that with the Mac?

So, currently we have the 13" MacBook Pro, but the Touch Bar is a dead end, and the rumored 15" MacBook Air will fill the price gap. I think the larger Air will be introduced in the late 2022 time slot and the smallest Pro will disappear.

The smaller iMac will get the M2 and a fresh set of colors in early 2023. Color Czar for the win, I hope! Perhaps the MacBook Air lineup from the previous fall will have the same colors.

The MacBook Pro gets M2 Pro/Max in late 2023, and perhaps this is where we see the 27" iMac (or maybe 29"?) return to the lineup. Perhaps it can only go up to the M2 Pro for thermal/design reasons.

Early 2024 sees the first update to the Mac Studio. This line is more modular, more expandable, and more thermally capable, which covers the area beyond what the iMac can handle.

And finally we get to the second Mac Pro refresh in late 2024. I think the Mac Pro will retain its ridiculous case size. It’s an excellent design and gives maximum expandability and thermal headroom. I love the idea of a G-series Apple silicon graphics card as mentioned on The Talk Show. The Mac Pro will still have all sorts of slots, so fill them up with G1 cards if you need that. The Mac Pro will have a base model with the M2 Max variant if your needs are lower on the CPU side and you just need a giant case to fill with G2 graphics cards or tons of storage or whatever.

So I think the M-series chips (and G-series) will skip core design generations. A14, then A16, then A18, and so on. You have one set of engineers working on core design, and another set to maximize that design into all of the variants. Apple controls everything, and they are so far ahead of everyone else, so why not move to a predictable release cycle? It has to make things easier for hardware designers, too. People like me are happy to know when things will be new. Everyone else can buy at any time with confidence that they are getting a modern feature set (as they do with the iPhone now). Old machines with M1 or whatever can stick around to hit price points, if necessary.

Maybe this is wishful thinking, but as long as Apple keeps their edge with chip design, I think this sort of cycle is totally reasonable and prevents the M-series chips from getting too far behind the A-series.

Did I miss anything?